{"source":"Polymarket signal scanner","methodology":"Mean-reversion style heuristics with liquidity/volume quality scoring","disclaimer":"Signals are informational and not financial advice.","count":22,"as_of":"2026-09-05T16:34:07.517Z","signals":[{"id":"3004706","question":"Will Romania win the UEFA EURO 2028?","conditionId":"0x061c6e156ba7687e817fb0b8127ed6c43f032f665a4c898c80eb284cd8c27c69","slug":"will-romania-win-the-uefa-euro-2028-20260720162754477","resolutionSource":"","liquidity":"31586.57079","startDate":"2026-07-20T19:18:28.382314Z","description":"This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. \n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.0015","0.9985"],"volume":"999.8570000000002","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-07-20T19:07:46.238682Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Romania","groupItemThreshold":"42","questionID":"0x521b95fa7e42a7b9aa434c1ea272fdcb36cf091cc0ffc09d24149a0cc418122a","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":999.8570000000002,"liquidityNum":31586.57079,"startDateIso":"2026-07-20","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["105108853040329484671113943486963941178349354964055239673580336197619704678798","27534012514175483959039859880935921520788187201263532178927266310461659706420"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":999.8570000000002,"liquidityClob":31586.57079,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x521b95fa7e42a7b9aa434c1ea272fdcb36cf091cc0ffc09d24149a0cc4181200","negRiskRequestID":"0xd734709668ab90233eba800431219ea34fcbe255422b963d1cf3a34ecd52060b","events":[{"id":"726377","ticker":"uefa-euro-2028-winner-20260720162754434","slug":"uefa-euro-2028-winner-20260720162754434","title":"UEFA EURO 2028: Winner","description":"This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. \n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-07-20T19:13:58.597115Z","creationDate":"2026-07-20T19:25:19.89751Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/uefa-euro-2028-winner-20260720162754434-fNB3mHZtu0f5.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/uefa-euro-2028-winner-20260720162754434-fNB3mHZtu0f5.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":3504256.52884,"volume":59802.526763,"openInterest":5304.065871999998,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-07-20T19:07:40.38967Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9296920395119117,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":3504256.52884,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x521b95fa7e42a7b9aa434c1ea272fdcb36cf091cc0ffc09d24149a0cc4181200","commentCount":4,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":true,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-20T19:08:07.171723Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Spain's recent World Cup triumph—capped by a 1-0 extra-time final win over Argentina after a 2-0 semifinal defeat of France—underpins their 22.5% implied probability as defending European champions, with a deep squad featuring young talents like Lamine Yamal and an unbeaten streak across major tournaments. 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If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the official final score published on efl.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. 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Zhetysu sits 14th-15th with 19 points from 23 matches and a -17 goal difference, while Irtysh occupies a similar position with 18-20 points from 22 games. Recent form favors neither: Zhetysu has lost four of its last five, including heavy defeats to Ordabasy and Zhenis, while Irtysh earned a 2-1 win over Aktobe but suffered losses to Tobol and Yelimay. Head-to-head trends show Zhetysu prevailing in the most recent meeting (2-1 away in April) and holding a strong historical edge. Home advantage and the visitors' inconsistent away results represent the primary variables ahead of this fixture between two struggling sides.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-31T14:00:14.242Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-31T13:56:55Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8025579125789717,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.008,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.461,"bestAsk":0.008,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"sportsMarketType":"spreads","line":-1.5,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\", \"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-31T13:56:30.489793Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.004","0.996"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.4,"noProbability":99.6,"mispricingPct":49.6,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.4%","Mispricing 49.6% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3582091","question":"Will Tsao Erh-chang win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?","conditionId":"0xa6edfe523435c547b4e9b85ce28e3d1776f6ce73f52f5753093873030aceb2f1","slug":"will-tsao-erh-chang-win-the-next-lienchiang-county-magistrate-election-202608131357161602","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-06-30T23:59:00Z","liquidity":"998.61657","startDate":"2026-08-14T13:07:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tw2026-tsao-erh-chang-11460cda92.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tw2026-tsao-erh-chang-11460cda92.jpg","description":"Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"volume":"999.5899999999999","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-14T13:05:49.552534Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Tsao Erh-chang","groupItemThreshold":"1","questionID":"0x2928fd6bcfd7a2ae928d3029796bcb2c2e558e67b03e0de1af621d46099db601","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":999.5899999999999,"liquidityNum":998.61657,"endDateIso":"2027-06-30","startDateIso":"2026-08-14","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["91117745517446668407060110317236098402210115142715812324465311023270333171360","55160703085898741986336661376619413034579383009910661342060105331752142495226"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":999.5899999999999,"liquidityClob":998.61657,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x2928fd6bcfd7a2ae928d3029796bcb2c2e558e67b03e0de1af621d46099db600","negRiskRequestID":"0xa6b3164677f9575cec42bca9f0d71de46a18b876ae164a8382095779c6c56cc1","events":[{"id":"848492","ticker":"lienchiang-county-magistrate-election-winner-202608131357161600","slug":"lienchiang-county-magistrate-election-winner-202608131357161600","title":"Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner","description":"Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-08-14T13:07:00Z","creationDate":"2026-08-14T13:08:26.289437Z","endDate":"2026-11-28T23:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tw2026-city-lienchiang-7c1c3388b7.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/tw2026-city-lienchiang-7c1c3388b7.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":15970.89171,"volume":5524.753256,"openInterest":1622.736981,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2026-08-14T13:05:48.311995Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.8795848359574281,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":15970.89171,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x2928fd6bcfd7a2ae928d3029796bcb2c2e558e67b03e0de1af621d46099db600","commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":false,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":true,"countryName":"Taiwan","estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-14T13:06:10.775905Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Wang Chung-ming, the Kuomintang incumbent seeking re-election as Lienchiang County Magistrate, holds an 87% implied probability in the market, reflecting his party nomination, strong local base, and prior victory in the 2022 contest against independent challenger Tsao Erh-yuan. Candidate registration closed on September 4, 2026, confirming Wang and Tsao Erh-yuan as the primary contenders in this small offshore county, with no Democratic Progressive Party nominee entering the race. Tsao Erh-yuan, a former county land administration official running independently for a rematch, sits at 5.8%, underscoring limited trader expectation of an upset. The November 28, 2026, election timing and KMT's structural dominance in Lienchiang align with the current pricing, though late developments in voter turnout or campaign dynamics could still influence the outcome.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T14:18:59.221Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-14T13:07:00Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8003199679231757,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.001,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-14T13:06:10.845093Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.1,"noProbability":100,"mispricingPct":50,"qualityScore":20,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.1%","Mispricing 50% from 50/50","Quality 20/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3795889","question":"Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Fulham FC O/U 2.5","conditionId":"0xad23e1d61dcd98176b43e074e1c52e4399f5c6c5c0b3c34d404cf8e9c8cf75f6","slug":"epl-ful-cry-2026-09-05-team-total-home-2pt5","resolutionSource":"https://www.premierleague.com/","endDate":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","liquidity":"14247.692","startDate":"2026-08-23T05:02:02Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Repetitive-markets/premier+league.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Repetitive-markets/premier+league.jpg","description":"In the upcoming Premier League game between Fulham FC and Crystal Palace FC, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to \"Over\" if Fulham FC score 3 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Fulham FC score less than 3 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to \"Under\". This market is based solely on Fulham FC's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.","outcomes":["Over","Under"],"outcomePrices":["0.0025","0.9975"],"volume":"99.947367","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-23T05:00:58.641275Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Fulham FC O/U 2.5","groupItemThreshold":"6","questionID":"0x256e1aaf1f0a1bfd521575203aa902ccfa50c4522f1f33314f035fb491833386","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"proposed","volumeNum":99.947367,"liquidityNum":14247.692,"endDateIso":"2026-09-05","startDateIso":"2026-08-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":99.947367,"volume1wk":99.947367,"volume1mo":99.947367,"volume1yr":99.947367,"gameStartTime":"2026-09-05 14:00:00+00","secondsDelay":1,"clobTokenIds":["63953309985344649786271815880796669851389473261701483771172435984012653654669","58676031733418016272216968435242634436390528100815993328649788144530283481585"],"positionIds":["724336736244557520050307253507633375802352236159514332236091179753168437248","724336736244557520050307253507633375802352236159514332236091179753168437249"],"comboStatus":"enabled","umaBond":"250","umaReward":"0.8","volume24hrClob":99.947367,"volume1wkClob":99.947367,"volume1moClob":99.947367,"volume1yrClob":99.947367,"volumeClob":99.947367,"liquidityClob":14247.692,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":900,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"events":[{"id":"893580","ticker":"epl-ful-cry-2026-09-05-more-markets","slug":"epl-ful-cry-2026-09-05-more-markets","title":"Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets","description":"More markets for the Premier League game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00 AM ET.","resolutionSource":"https://www.premierleague.com/","startDate":"2026-08-23T05:01:56Z","creationDate":"2026-08-23T05:03:41.673909Z","endDate":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Repetitive-markets/premier+league.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Repetitive-markets/premier+league.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":939120.44796,"volume":237162.351623,"openInterest":200196.85406399998,"createdAt":"2026-08-23T05:00:54.764146Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.8025579125789717,"volume24hr":234354.89455899998,"volume1wk":237032.15786,"volume1mo":237046.443573,"volume1yr":237046.443573,"parentEventId":893106,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":939120.44796,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"series":[{"id":"10188","ticker":"premier-league-2025","slug":"premier-league-2025","title":"Premier League 2025","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"daily","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"createdAt":"2025-08-08T14:56:37.247227Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:33:08.802215Z","volume24hr":19024409.959673002,"volume":7395127.703687002,"liquidity":13493174.33733,"commentCount":3159,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"eventDate":"2026-09-05","startTime":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","seriesSlug":"premier-league-2025","score":"2-3","elapsed":"","period":"VFT","live":false,"ended":true,"finishedTimestamp":"2026-09-05T15:57:04.672525Z","negRiskAugmented":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"gameId":90114089,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"**Fulham host Crystal Palace at Craven Cottage in a Premier League fixture (around early September 2026) featuring two sides under new management after mid-table finishes last season (Fulham 11th, Palace 15th).** Both clubs are transitioning: Álvaro Arbeloa has taken over at Fulham following Marco Silva’s departure, while Pierre Sage succeeds Oliver Glasner at Palace after the Eagles’ Conference League triumph. \n\nPre-season offered limited clarity, with Palace claiming a 2-1 friendly win over Fulham in August amid experimental lineups and debuts for new signings like Gonzalo García and César Palacios on the Cottagers’ side. Current squad availability shapes preparations—Fulham are without suspended defender Joachim Andersen and long-term knee absentee Tom Cairney, while Palace monitor goalkeeper Dean Henderson’s ankle issue. Recent form, home/away splits, and how quickly the new coaches integrate attacking reinforcements and midfield options will influence early-season dynamics, with both teams facing relatively favorable opening schedules against promoted sides. Market pricing reflects the competitive nature of the matchup and uncertainty around adaptation periods.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-23T06:00:11.475Z","opticOddsFixtureId":"20260905E2C61563","opticOddsGameId":"71125-36989-2026-09-05","opticOddsNumericalId":944218},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-23T05:02:02Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8015991903848178,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.005,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.1725,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.6625,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.1725,"lastTradePrice":0.19,"bestAsk":0.005,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"sportsMarketType":"soccer_team_totals","line":2.5,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\", \"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-23T05:01:01.529651Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","marketMetadata":{"opticOddsFixtureId":"20260905E2C61563","opticOddsMarketId":"team_total","opticOddsMarketName":"Team Total","opticOddsPoints":2.5,"opticOddsSelection":"Fulham FC Over 2.5","opticOddsSelectionLine":"over","opticOddsTeamId":"D6AD821C3B5E"},"feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.0025","0.9975"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.3,"noProbability":99.8,"mispricingPct":49.8,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.3%","Mispricing 49.8% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3205488","question":"Megaquake by August 31?","conditionId":"0xfb0c716f26b60263970c49b0f9bbbffb48c850e495ecf5eeaf9272b7665057f6","slug":"megaquake-by-august-31-20260729155103111","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","liquidity":"261.75226","startDate":"2026-07-29T16:51:49.709442Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","description":"A \"megaquake\" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.\n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.001","0.999"],"volume":"9994.369161999999","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-07-29T16:49:54.08129Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"questionID":"0x2dc77ca05748202fb0f51c207b4a703d5a7f44eb8ecf430f344aec110d44b897","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":9994.369161999999,"liquidityNum":261.75226,"endDateIso":"2026-09-01","startDateIso":"2026-07-29","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["21664414185065299059173310148200377835893501660700160632763177672467466661106","93095646252676346618668987402286765960980776958272800469287444542743500264923"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":9994.369161999999,"liquidityClob":261.75226,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"768750","ticker":"megaquake-by-august-31-20260729155103111","slug":"megaquake-by-august-31-20260729155103111","title":"Megaquake by August 31?","description":"A \"megaquake\" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).\n\nIf an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.\n\nAfter a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-07-29T16:51:49.709442Z","creationDate":"2026-07-29T16:54:09.748935Z","endDate":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/megaquake-in-august-BR2e9f9Z8Omw.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":261.75226,"volume":9994.369161999999,"openInterest":7478.322926,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-07-29T16:49:53.673867Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.8006398713852111,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":261.75226,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":2,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"The near-certain 99.9% market-implied odds for “No” on a megaquake by August 31 stem from the absence of any magnitude 9.0 or greater event on the moment magnitude scale through the deadline, as verified by continuous global monitoring from the USGS and equivalent agencies. Megaquakes of this scale remain exceptionally rare, occurring on average once or twice per century along major subduction zones, and no foreshock sequences, slow-slip events, or precursory seismic swarms reached thresholds that would indicate imminent risk during the observation window. Comprehensive real-time networks detect even moderate activity worldwide, leaving little room for undetected M9+ events. The only realistic scenarios that could still alter resolution involve a post-deadline magnitude revision of a late-August quake or a previously unreported aftershock sequence crossing the threshold, though both are statistically improbable given current data.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T15:48:31.094Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-29T16:51:02Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8006398713852111,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.002,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.0235,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.089,"lastTradePrice":0.031,"bestAsk":0.002,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-29T16:50:00.274447Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"weather_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.001","0.999"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.1,"noProbability":99.9,"mispricingPct":49.9,"qualityScore":20,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.1%","Mispricing 49.9% from 50/50","Quality 20/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3809224","question":"Rosenborg BK vs. Hamarkameratene: Hamarkameratene O/U 0.5","conditionId":"0x5492d71709ab014110286a02699b90e19742f03a38dcd4cd089ac13c311a1879","slug":"nor-rbk-ham-2026-09-05-team-total-away-0pt5","resolutionSource":"https://www.eliteserien.no/","endDate":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","liquidity":"11089.3258","startDate":"2026-08-23T16:00:46Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/norwegian-elite-2078e62a98.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/norwegian-elite-2078e62a98.jpg","description":"In the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game between Rosenborg BK and Hamarkameratene, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to \"Over\" if Hamarkameratene score 1 or more goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If Hamarkameratene score less than 1 goals within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to \"Under\". This market is based solely on Hamarkameratene's score, not the combined score of both teams. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.","outcomes":["Over","Under"],"outcomePrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"volume":"9.992411","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-23T16:00:19.38618Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Hamarkameratene O/U 0.5","groupItemThreshold":"6","questionID":"0x47416bfc7a1a172cb23d2f06b2842e12429cc0cd101fbf78f3d1fa9dbd5dfadf","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"umaResolutionStatus":"proposed","volumeNum":9.992411,"liquidityNum":11089.3258,"endDateIso":"2026-09-05","startDateIso":"2026-08-23","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":9.992411,"volume1wk":9.992411,"volume1mo":9.992411,"volume1yr":9.992411,"gameStartTime":"2026-09-05 14:00:00+00","secondsDelay":1,"clobTokenIds":["60053161966329601716368011753090697915635055721295663894166955668496746246746","3597987882854026066601872373060179017463433069410312053529932402879493650230"],"positionIds":["719568747142395558225451612143804337626044038794152141586875227381415542784","719568747142395558225451612143804337626044038794152141586875227381415542785"],"comboStatus":"enabled","umaBond":"250","umaReward":"0.8","volume24hrClob":9.992411,"volume1wkClob":9.992411,"volume1moClob":9.992411,"volume1yrClob":9.992411,"volumeClob":9.992411,"liquidityClob":11089.3258,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"events":[{"id":"896070","ticker":"nor-rbk-ham-2026-09-05-more-markets","slug":"nor-rbk-ham-2026-09-05-more-markets","title":"Rosenborg BK vs. Hamarkameratene - More Markets","description":"More markets for the Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:00 AM ET.","resolutionSource":"https://www.eliteserien.no/","startDate":"2026-08-23T16:00:45Z","creationDate":"2026-08-23T16:01:43.977176Z","endDate":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/norwegian-elite-2078e62a98.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/norwegian-elite-2078e62a98.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":288093.01071,"volume":9501.326627,"openInterest":6949.709213,"createdAt":"2026-08-23T16:00:15.7775Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.8028773518535728,"volume24hr":9470.439836,"volume1wk":9501.326627,"volume1mo":9501.326627,"volume1yr":9501.326627,"parentEventId":891495,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":288093.01071,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"series":[{"id":"10362","ticker":"norway-eliteserien","slug":"norway-eliteserien","title":"Norway Eliteserien","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"daily","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"createdAt":"2025-10-07T15:45:13.222542Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:33:08.802215Z","volume24hr":405133.29637500003,"volume":164637.43486699995,"liquidity":1472039.47167,"commentCount":18,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"eventDate":"2026-09-05","startTime":"2026-09-05T14:00:00Z","seriesSlug":"norway-eliteserien","score":"4-0","elapsed":"","period":"VFT","live":false,"ended":true,"finishedTimestamp":"2026-09-05T15:55:40.330256Z","negRiskAugmented":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"gameId":90107575,"requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Rosenborg BK enters the September 5 Eliteserien fixture at Lerkendal Stadium as home favorites against mid-to-lower table Hamarkameratene, reflecting the hosts’ stronger squad depth, historical edge, and typical home dominance in the Norwegian top flight. Rosenborg sit seventh after 17 matches with a 7-3-7 record, buoyed by a recent 2-1 league win over Viking, though three straight losses earlier in the campaign highlight inconsistency. Multiple forward absences for Rosenborg, including Iver Fossum, Simen Bolkan Nordli, and Dino Islamovic, could limit scoring depth against a HamKam side showing no comparable injury concerns. Head-to-head trends reinforce Rosenborg’s edge, with five wins and just two defeats across the last eight meetings and no draws in the prior seven. HamKam’s 10th-place standing and modest away form suggest limited upset potential unless Rosenborg’s attacking options remain heavily depleted.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-23T17:01:15.644Z","opticOddsFixtureId":"2026090500CA14F6","opticOddsGameId":"22812-39694-2026-09-05","opticOddsNumericalId":582262},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-23T16:00:46Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8003199679231757,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.001,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.5845,"oneHourPriceChange":-0.4995,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.4995,"lastTradePrice":0.58,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"sportsMarketType":"soccer_team_totals","line":0.5,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[\"proposed\", \"proposed\"]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-23T16:00:23.500945Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","marketMetadata":{"opticOddsFixtureId":"2026090500CA14F6","opticOddsMarketId":"team_total","opticOddsMarketName":"Team Total","opticOddsPoints":0.5,"opticOddsSelection":"Hamarkameratene Over 0.5","opticOddsSelectionLine":"over","opticOddsTeamId":"18F3FAE69132"},"feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.1,"noProbability":100,"mispricingPct":50,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.1%","Mispricing 50% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3661794","question":"Will Alexandre Mariano win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?","conditionId":"0x477ce53f89d778bd39281ec27fb65d805a209d9950f089deff3b676cd7626dd1","slug":"will-alexandre-mariano-win-the-most-votes-in-the-2026-piaui-senate-election","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-10-04T06:00:00Z","liquidity":"8891.68893","startDate":"2026-08-17T10:06:30Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brsen-pi-alexandre-mariano-5654e91949.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brsen-pi-alexandre-mariano-5654e91949.jpg","description":"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.\n\nCandidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"volume":"998.96","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-17T10:05:13.957456Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Alexandre Mariano","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0xd9b7352396bcb76e8186e7268f713cbdcff9fc25881e5dddd7c917a6bbc47300","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":998.96,"liquidityNum":8891.68893,"endDateIso":"2026-10-04","startDateIso":"2026-08-17","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["13945610613846409598398131591197384574767923233589745926289729300970259315959","10198058065643718262212677460484398404109138480743615348827814158294218320267"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":998.96,"liquidityClob":8891.68893,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xd9b7352396bcb76e8186e7268f713cbdcff9fc25881e5dddd7c917a6bbc47300","negRiskRequestID":"0x4e73b5431cb724515838d6cf76c8e07fc0eaf37d0f51733ad5e437f329381c61","events":[{"id":"864364","ticker":"piaui-senate-election-1st-place","slug":"piaui-senate-election-1st-place","title":"Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place","description":"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.\n\nCandidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-08-17T10:06:30Z","creationDate":"2026-08-17T10:08:27.474349Z","endDate":"2026-10-04T06:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brsen-flag-pi-62678d2642.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/brsen-flag-pi-62678d2642.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":154226.20829,"volume":39595.572276,"openInterest":2528.1803960000007,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2026-08-17T10:05:13.151016Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9987764987889834,"volume24hr":44.185184,"volume1wk":890.255184,"volume1mo":10212.178736999997,"volume1yr":10212.178736999997,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":154226.20829,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xd9b7352396bcb76e8186e7268f713cbdcff9fc25881e5dddd7c917a6bbc47300","commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":false,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":true,"countryName":"Brazil","estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T10:05:51.008984Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Marcelo Castro (MDB) holds a narrow edge in trader pricing for first place in Piauí’s two-seat Senate race, reflecting recent polls that place him slightly ahead or tied with Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Júlio César (PSD) among the three frontrunners. Multiple June and July surveys showed the trio clustered within a few points in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, with Castro often at 20-30% and the others close behind amid 15-60% undecided or blank responses. Castro benefits from lower rejection and alignment with the state’s governing base, while Nogueira’s higher negative ratings and national profile create a ceiling, and Júlio César gains from first-time Senate momentum. The October 2 vote and persistent undecided share keep separation unlikely without major late shifts in alliances or turnout.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T14:03:10.664Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-17T10:06:30Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8003199679231757,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.001,"lastTradePrice":0.001,"bestAsk":0.001,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-17T10:05:51.025891Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.0005","0.9995"],"signal":{"yesProbability":0.1,"noProbability":100,"mispricingPct":50,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":63,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 0.1%","Mispricing 50% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3785079","question":"Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club?","conditionId":"0x900004dc93e4900a94f7bc84c129676c3644d12b2f3b303b2f5fc495f7055b21","slug":"spl-ith-nsr-2026-09-05-exact-score-0-0","endDate":"2026-09-05T18:00:00Z","liquidity":"25790.0817","startDate":"2026-08-22T19:31:11Z","description":"In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Ittihad Saudi Club and Al Nassr Saudi Club, scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club match originally scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to \"Any Other Score.\" If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to \"0-0.\" The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. 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The bunched field stems from numerous viable quarterback and skill-position candidates with recent setbacks, uncertain playing time, and the award's emphasis on narrative impact over raw production.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T15:34:43.093Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-24T02:01:40Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8133777871406599,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.038,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.003,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.004,"bestBid":0.002,"bestAsk":0.04,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-24T01:49:11.232139Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.021","0.979"],"signal":{"yesProbability":2.1,"noProbability":97.9,"mispricingPct":47.9,"qualityScore":20,"confidence":61,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 2.1%","Mispricing 47.9% from 50/50","Quality 20/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"2750298","question":"Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?","conditionId":"0xa269db945d01305fc42b3bfa3e01e95ee17619a5e490e26236d969401c79e2ec","slug":"will-emmanuel-macron-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-20260630194627364","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","liquidity":"13444.07837","startDate":"2026-07-01T02:18:26.879119Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","description":"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.0175","0.9825"],"volume":"9988.717636000003","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-07-01T02:15:04.706788Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Macron - France President","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x2519e258a24e7c847d53022e321cc54605568961adb75f79abaa0c2a33aa7600","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":9988.717636000003,"liquidityNum":13444.07837,"endDateIso":"2027-01-01","startDateIso":"2026-07-01","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["59305882068380023228693610423087549375705431730703496786186377446545536598452","73176343900370253184209136249445312828780868988011627584436422090220312585721"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":9988.717636000003,"liquidityClob":13444.07837,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x2519e258a24e7c847d53022e321cc54605568961adb75f79abaa0c2a33aa7600","negRiskRequestID":"0x81804d0411b541f43d831840d5b3f63a1df14ac2e55f3d95fbcb9b2e87561d7a","events":[{"id":"653446","ticker":"next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406","slug":"next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406","title":"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)","description":"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-07-01T02:18:26.879119Z","creationDate":"2026-07-01T02:21:54.398661Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":373041.70468,"volume":264873.10324,"openInterest":24461.825823000003,"sortBy":"price","createdAt":"2026-07-01T02:15:01.973168Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9890952251428006,"volume24hr":3183.479196,"volume1wk":21842.943805000003,"volume1mo":70533.18548100001,"volume1yr":152857.046245,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":373041.70468,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0x2519e258a24e7c847d53022e321cc54605568961adb75f79abaa0c2a33aa7600","commentCount":0,"series":[{"id":"10842","ticker":"next-leader-out","slug":"next-leader-out","title":"Next leader out","seriesType":"single","recurrence":"annual","image":"","icon":"","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"createdAt":"2026-01-05T14:15:01.443102Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:33:08.802215Z","volume24hr":3183.479196,"volume":264873.10324,"liquidity":373041.70468,"commentCount":151,"requiresTranslation":false}],"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":true,"seriesSlug":"next-leader-out","gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-01T02:15:19.711013Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Trader consensus shows a tight contest between Netanyahu exiting office before 2027 and no listed leader departing that soon, with the two outcomes separated by only three points. Netanyahu's standing hinges on coalition stability, Knesset dynamics, and ongoing security pressures in Israel. The \"none\" outcome draws support from term structures, limited immediate election cycles, and the demonstrated durability of most other incumbents. Key variables that could create separation include parliamentary votes in Spain or France, any coalition shifts in Turkey, or unexpected developments affecting leaders in Ukraine, Venezuela, or Argentina. Late legal, health, or diplomatic events remain the main risks that could reorder probabilities before the cutoff.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T16:17:22.532Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-07-01T02:17:26Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8111574710137947,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":100,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.017,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.007,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.0075,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.0225,"lastTradePrice":0.035,"bestBid":0.009,"bestAsk":0.026,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-07-01T02:16:24.99264Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":null,"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.0175","0.9825"],"signal":{"yesProbability":1.8,"noProbability":98.3,"mispricingPct":48.3,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":61,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 1.8%","Mispricing 48.3% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"2055078","question":"Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?","conditionId":"0x9b8b2f5b164df335787b29d955fd769f2af517b55bedff616e90d65acd67158b","slug":"will-grald-darmanin-announce-their-candidacy-for-the-2027-french-presidential-election-in-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-04-23T00:00:00Z","liquidity":"8581.06994","startDate":"2026-04-22T22:26:25.533929Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/france-presidential-election-2027-U5QY3acvfubZ.png","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.\n\nStatements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.033","0.967"],"volume":"999.2118519999999","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-04-22T21:53:25.46926Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Gérald Darmanin","groupItemThreshold":"8","questionID":"0x23a74154b55a4b2a8b0847433399262a40834920ddda2c2f1a7f4e52db4e3d5e","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.001,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":999.2118519999999,"liquidityNum":8581.06994,"endDateIso":"2027-04-23","startDateIso":"2026-04-22","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["71581280959767428872513868813666063131782570875774080420329933320929673816928","5026210085121513868930084778531889510108176146223733942209968807611480351076"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":999.2118519999999,"liquidityClob":8581.06994,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"407745","ticker":"french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-run-in-2026","slug":"french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-run-in-2026","title":"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?","description":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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Marine Le Pen confirmed her bid in July after an appeals court cleared her legal path despite the upheld conviction, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, and Bruno Retailleau announced or advanced their campaigns earlier in the year. On the fragmented left, Raphaël Glucksmann and Olivier Faure entered contention in August for an October primary, alongside figures like Karim Bouamrane and Bernard Cazeneuve. Recent MEDEF debates and polling showing Le Pen leading have sharpened focus on remaining undecided center-right or centrist contenders, with primary outcomes and any further legal developments likely to influence additional 2026 announcements before the two-round vote in April and May.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T16:32:37.757Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-04-22T22:25:22Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8209580744920938,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.03,"oneDayPriceChange":0.0005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.002,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.062,"lastTradePrice":0.014,"bestBid":0.018,"bestAsk":0.048,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"seriesColor":"","showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-04-22T22:23:15.682977Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.033","0.967"],"signal":{"yesProbability":3.3,"noProbability":96.7,"mispricingPct":46.7,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":60,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 3.3%","Mispricing 46.7% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3031324","question":"Will Philadelphia Eagles finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most return yards?","conditionId":"0x2c5146ea5fc8b6014aafb8a28a3554216dbb983c310de60fab3890a17e9c474a","slug":"will-philadelphia-eagles-finish-the-2026-27-nfl-regular-season-with-the-most-return-yards-20260716001414220","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","liquidity":"218.06614","startDate":"2026-07-22T17:17:18.993213Z","description":"This market will resolve in favor of the team that finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most return yards (yards tracked across kickoff and punt returns).\n\nIn the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied team with more return touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team with a higher average yards per return during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. 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However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. 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Home advantage and recent attacking form tilt slight edge toward a 3-1 or 2-1 outcome, yet Mainz’s ability to frustrate opponents keeps lower-scoring or narrow away results competitive in the market.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-08-24T05:00:52.261Z","opticOddsFixtureId":"20260906B1C2FFBA","opticOddsGameId":"40503-21119-2026-09-06","opticOddsNumericalId":996145},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-24T04:00:42Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8347071221385196,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"rewardsMinSize":50,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.01,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.445,"bestBid":0.05,"bestAsk":0.06,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"sportsMarketType":"soccer_exact_score","umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-24T04:00:13.790934Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","marketMetadata":{"opticOddsFixtureId":"20260906B1C2FFBA","opticOddsMarketId":"correct_score","opticOddsMarketName":"Correct Score","opticOddsSelection":"0:0","opticOddsSelectionLine":"0:0"},"feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.055","0.945"],"signal":{"yesProbability":5.5,"noProbability":94.5,"mispricingPct":44.5,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":57,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 5.5%","Mispricing 44.5% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3520695","question":"Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 40%-45%?","conditionId":"0x81bde133881d08503f80c8bbed51b1f47f380521bd5e34839cab8f8509dd9a60","slug":"will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ri-01-house-election-by-40-45","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-11-03T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"8994.7482","startDate":"2026-08-11T18:49:27Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-16-or-more-CzzNoWN2xPFo.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-16-or-more-CzzNoWN2xPFo.png","description":"The 2026 RI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nThe \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for \"Democrat\" and \"Republican,\" respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to \"Other.\" If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as \"Republican\" or \"Democrat\" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 RI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.125","0.875"],"volume":"99.94","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-11T18:49:05.420267Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Democrat 40-45%","groupItemThreshold":"2","questionID":"0xc184d63e8e3c7fb0ff82930ef284213f003e5a3c7bd33706e1e7cd59b1918602","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":99.94,"liquidityNum":8994.7482,"endDateIso":"2026-11-03","startDateIso":"2026-08-11","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["113419244978612374657788613302308056345217250077831900789670976757423558694343","114919317090351120421519061855286050767102359898308259293439467110483353632097"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":99.94,"liquidityClob":8994.7482,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xc184d63e8e3c7fb0ff82930ef284213f003e5a3c7bd33706e1e7cd59b1918600","negRiskRequestID":"0x0be128840a26ba16f54068b1dff71e4d51070fc357f96c57bf572a0d19faba78","events":[{"id":"834514","ticker":"ri-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026","slug":"ri-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026","title":"RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory","description":"The 2026 RI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nThe \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for \"Democrat\" and \"Republican,\" respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to \"Other.\" If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as \"Republican\" or \"Democrat\" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 RI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-08-11T18:49:27Z","creationDate":"2026-08-11T18:50:23.110267Z","endDate":"2026-11-03T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/state_flags/RI.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/state_flags/RI.png","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":36389.20962,"volume":1254.5962040000002,"openInterest":142.114907,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-08-11T18:49:04.385591Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.8936350841134023,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":36389.20962,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xc184d63e8e3c7fb0ff82930ef284213f003e5a3c7bd33706e1e7cd59b1918600","commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":false,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":true,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-11T18:49:12.837376Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"The RI-01 contest features incumbent Democrat Gabe Amo seeking reelection against Republican Kellie Keenan, with primaries set for September 9. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+12 PVI and Amo’s 63% victory in 2024. Amo’s substantial fundraising lead and lack of primary opposition contrast with Keenan’s limited resources and profile. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a sizable Democratic margin while leaving room for debate between the 35-40% and 45-50% buckets. Late developments such as national economic shifts, turnout surprises in Providence and Newport, or unexpected primary volatility could narrow or widen the final spread before November 3.","context_requires_regen":true,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T11:34:49.325Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-11T18:49:27Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8767123287671234,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1828039","conditionId":"0x81bde133881d08503f80c8bbed51b1f47f380521bd5e34839cab8f8509dd9a60","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":6,"startDate":"2026-09-05","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.01,"oneDayPriceChange":-0.02,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.025,"lastTradePrice":0.13,"bestBid":0.12,"bestAsk":0.13,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-11T18:49:12.850263Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.125","0.875"],"signal":{"yesProbability":12.5,"noProbability":87.5,"mispricingPct":37.5,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":50,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 12.5%","Mispricing 37.5% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3868080","question":"Will AVAX reach $16 by December 31, 2026?","conditionId":"0xa9862f998de9b0c49833bb38f985ab54709582018741bd0389e97cb9c620768b","slug":"will-avax-reach-16-by-december-31-2026","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","liquidity":"68.0562","startDate":"2026-08-25T05:22:42Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-YcL4Xsfdbh-C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-YcL4Xsfdbh-C.jpg","description":"This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Avalanche (AVAX/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the AVAX/USDT “High” and \"Low\" prices available at:\nhttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/AVAX_USDT\nwith the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.\n\nOnly the Binance AVAX/USDT price feed will be used.\nPrices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.13","0.87"],"volume":"99.993867","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-25T05:22:29.518891Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"↑ 16","groupItemThreshold":"0","questionID":"0x14eee43f58d6e85f38f6a5a6f1eb199c2f9e43f22cfe0a0969acead8ab542f15","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":99.993867,"liquidityNum":68.0562,"endDateIso":"2027-01-01","startDateIso":"2026-08-25","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["19301103398808029289864675092681180087737507222233475578920964234672704067007","68801397509876932676983639929265751374662175220182397356512224656303056608246"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":99.993867,"liquidityClob":68.0562,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"events":[{"id":"630087","ticker":"what-price-will-avalanche-hit-before-2027","slug":"what-price-will-avalanche-hit-before-2027","title":"What price will Avalanche hit in 2026?","description":"What price will Avalanche (AVAX) hit before 2027?","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-06-24T16:52:41.114561Z","creationDate":"2026-06-24T17:02:55.57803Z","endDate":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-YcL4Xsfdbh-C.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/what-YcL4Xsfdbh-C.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":1896.3017,"volume":6497.044603,"openInterest":1816.554957,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-06-24T16:38:10.747746Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9928268261808434,"volume24hr":59.997367,"volume1wk":416.777367,"volume1mo":714.019421,"volume1yr":742.352753,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":1896.3017,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-25T05:22:42Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8795848359574281,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1609065","conditionId":"0xa9862f998de9b0c49833bb38f985ab54709582018741bd0389e97cb9c620768b","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":1,"startDate":"2026-09-02","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.06,"oneWeekPriceChange":-0.125,"lastTradePrice":0.1,"bestBid":0.1,"bestAsk":0.16,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-25T05:22:31.997336Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"crypto_fees_v2","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.07,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.2},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.13","0.87"],"signal":{"yesProbability":13,"noProbability":87,"mispricingPct":37,"qualityScore":20,"confidence":49,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 13%","Mispricing 37% from 50/50","Quality 20/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3503551","question":"Will Christian McCaffrey have 1,374.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?","conditionId":"0x057127cdcecd2e1eac996043b8d33b64220c3400084dde1b04f9d03b63497a6d","slug":"christian-mccaffrey-1374pt5-rushing-yards-2026-27","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","liquidity":"151.7863","startDate":"2026-08-11T12:20:14.524558Z","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the number of rushing yards Christian McCaffrey records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 1,374.5. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Christian McCaffrey does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.\n\nIf the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many rushing yards Christian McCaffrey recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to \"50-50\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.135","0.865"],"volume":"99.93","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-10T23:57:04.50567Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"1,374.5+ rushing yards","groupItemThreshold":"4","questionID":"0x8b9bb17d91f02d8ce2927eb60405280a402cec2092538f796c59c1780842ad67","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":99.93,"liquidityNum":151.7863,"endDateIso":"2027-01-12","startDateIso":"2026-08-11","hasReviewedDates":true,"clobTokenIds":["92607860689324124360881852795563533027847764902102500389332369476590063036788","22574433039270333399470332816855808333138590264013834393091669843549879877984"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"500","umaReward":"5","volumeClob":99.93,"liquidityClob":151.7863,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":false,"negRiskRequestID":"","events":[{"id":"830631","ticker":"christian-mccaffrey-rushing-yards-2026-27","slug":"christian-mccaffrey-rushing-yards-2026-27","title":"Pro Football: Christian McCaffrey 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the number of rushing yards Christian McCaffrey records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Christian McCaffrey does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.\n\nIf the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many rushing yards Christian McCaffrey recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to \"50-50\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-08-11T12:03:45.850639Z","creationDate":"2026-08-11T12:54:19.984204Z","endDate":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/christian-mccaffrey-rushing-yards-2026-27-1Sc7CU35S7tc.jpg","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/christian-mccaffrey-rushing-yards-2026-27-1Sc7CU35S7tc.jpg","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":11560.794,"volume":887.11,"openInterest":296.02,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-08-10T23:57:02.690372Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9996001599360256,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":11560.794,"negRisk":false,"commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":false,"enableNegRisk":false,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":false,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"requiresTranslation":false,"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-11T12:19:27Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.8824372917999515,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1355155","conditionId":"0x057127cdcecd2e1eac996043b8d33b64220c3400084dde1b04f9d03b63497a6d","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":1,"startDate":"2026-08-15","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":4.5,"spread":0.01,"lastTradePrice":0.12,"bestBid":0.13,"bestAsk":0.14,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-11T00:00:05.631296Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"sports_fees_v3","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.05,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.15},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.135","0.865"],"signal":{"yesProbability":13.5,"noProbability":86.5,"mispricingPct":36.5,"qualityScore":20,"confidence":48,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 13.5%","Mispricing 36.5% from 50/50","Quality 20/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3369044","question":"Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?","conditionId":"0x96aaa5bc52b25aff508e7f6da4b4c084052362d98497a2504b8ed4e7f1df9492","slug":"will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-michigan-gubernatorial-election-by-9-12","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2026-11-03T12:00:00Z","liquidity":"8569.085","startDate":"2026-08-05T20:19:19.794559Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-16-or-more-CzzNoWN2xPFo.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-16-or-more-CzzNoWN2xPFo.png","description":"The 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nThe \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for \"Democrat\" and \"Republican,\" respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to \"Other.\" If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as \"Republican\" or \"Democrat\" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcomePrices":["0.18","0.82"],"volume":"998.864619","active":true,"closed":false,"marketMakerAddress":"","createdAt":"2026-08-05T20:15:33.695887Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:15.413085Z","new":false,"featured":false,"submitted_by":"0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D","archived":false,"resolvedBy":"0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24","restricted":true,"groupItemTitle":"Democrat 9-12%","groupItemThreshold":"6","questionID":"0xa7250063af84c3b709821786612d9bce8e7930f3ad09d85d8db132198aa78c06","enableOrderBook":true,"orderPriceMinTickSize":0.01,"orderMinSize":5,"volumeNum":998.864619,"liquidityNum":8569.085,"endDateIso":"2026-11-03","startDateIso":"2026-08-05","hasReviewedDates":true,"volume24hr":82.422856,"volume1wk":281.244619,"volume1mo":998.864619,"volume1yr":998.864619,"clobTokenIds":["80295388847433770631340645201293008397327894188734119697002081446200692065696","29241683813706388343233654735859405523854145196890154526719533111258631844847"],"comboStatus":"disabled","umaBond":"2500","umaReward":"20","volume24hrClob":82.422856,"volume1wkClob":281.244619,"volume1moClob":998.864619,"volume1yrClob":998.864619,"volumeClob":998.864619,"liquidityClob":8569.085,"makerBaseFee":1000,"takerBaseFee":1000,"customLiveness":0,"acceptingOrders":true,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xa7250063af84c3b709821786612d9bce8e7930f3ad09d85d8db132198aa78c00","negRiskRequestID":"0xa109d71113ed8da3dc1f539c59c44749a11c51b35f8e9201aaec444effcff50f","events":[{"id":"803019","ticker":"michigan-governor-margin-of-victory-2026","slug":"michigan-governor-margin-of-victory-2026","title":"Michigan Governor Election Margin of Victory","description":"The 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nThe \"margin of victory\" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nFor purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for \"Democrat\" and \"Republican,\" respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to \"Other.\" If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as \"Republican\" or \"Democrat\" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"","startDate":"2026-08-05T20:18:55.558996Z","creationDate":"2026-08-05T20:22:31.145866Z","endDate":"2026-11-03T12:00:00Z","image":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mi-033e1ebb70.png","icon":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mi-033e1ebb70.png","active":true,"closed":false,"archived":false,"new":false,"featured":false,"restricted":true,"liquidity":72925.83498,"volume":2400.079891,"openInterest":199.227011,"sortBy":"ascending","createdAt":"2026-08-05T20:15:30.926716Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-05T16:32:43.536043Z","competitive":0.9123255177447313,"volume24hr":154.612856,"volume1wk":353.434619,"volume1mo":1343.317869,"volume1yr":1343.317869,"enableOrderBook":true,"liquidityClob":72925.83498,"negRisk":true,"negRiskMarketID":"0xa7250063af84c3b709821786612d9bce8e7930f3ad09d85d8db132198aa78c00","commentCount":0,"cyom":false,"showAllOutcomes":true,"showMarketImages":true,"enableNegRisk":true,"automaticallyActive":true,"gmpChartMode":"default","negRiskAugmented":true,"estimateValue":false,"cumulativeMarkets":false,"pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-05T20:15:54.94426Z","requiresTranslation":false,"eventMetadata":{"context_description":"Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee Jocelyn Benson ahead of Republican John James by roughly six to eight points among likely voters, reflecting an open-seat contest following Gretchen Whitmer’s term limit. Benson’s strong primary performance and name recognition as secretary of state have anchored her position, while James consolidated Republican support after winning his primary. Michigan’s history of narrow statewide results, combined with its status as a battleground, keeps the margin narrow despite the Democratic edge. Trader pricing on specific victory ranges clusters around a modest Democratic win, consistent with current survey data and the absence of major late-breaking shifts. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution point, with further debate performances or national political developments potentially narrowing or widening the spread.","context_requires_regen":false,"context_updated_at":"2026-09-05T15:19:24.642Z"},"version":"v1"}],"ready":false,"funded":false,"acceptingOrdersTimestamp":"2026-08-05T20:18:20Z","cyom":false,"competitive":0.9071117561683599,"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled":false,"approved":true,"clobRewards":[{"id":"1439163","conditionId":"0x96aaa5bc52b25aff508e7f6da4b4c084052362d98497a2504b8ed4e7f1df9492","assetAddress":"0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174","rewardsAmount":0,"rewardsDailyRate":12,"startDate":"2026-09-05","endDate":"2500-12-31"}],"rewardsMinSize":20,"rewardsMaxSpread":5.5,"spread":0.06,"oneHourPriceChange":0.005,"oneWeekPriceChange":0.01,"oneMonthPriceChange":-0.22,"lastTradePrice":0.16,"bestBid":0.15,"bestAsk":0.21,"automaticallyActive":true,"clearBookOnStart":true,"showGmpSeries":false,"showGmpOutcome":false,"manualActivation":false,"negRiskOther":false,"umaResolutionStatuses":"[]","pendingDeployment":false,"deploying":false,"deployingTimestamp":"2026-08-05T20:16:59.091277Z","rfqEnabled":false,"holdingRewardsEnabled":false,"feesEnabled":true,"requiresTranslation":false,"feeType":"politics_fees","feeSchedule":{"exponent":1,"rate":0.04,"takerOnly":true,"rebateRate":0.25},"version":"v1","clobPrices":["0.18","0.82"],"signal":{"yesProbability":18,"noProbability":82,"mispricingPct":32,"qualityScore":21,"confidence":44,"strength":"WEAK","direction":"BUY_YES","rationale":["YES probability 18%","Mispricing 32% from 50/50","Quality 21/100 from liquidity + volume"]}},{"id":"3502731","question":"Will Tre Tucker have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?","conditionId":"0xb7bb2a98b4a470a244f9115c37811c79baa79387c97f5c1fbb19e008e951d090","slug":"tre-tucker-774pt5-receiving-yards-2026-27","resolutionSource":"","endDate":"2027-01-12T23:59:00Z","liquidity":"203.6779","startDate":"2026-08-11T11:03:46.436372Z","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the number of receiving yards Tre Tucker records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 774.5. 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